Monday, December 5, 2011

Assorted on India

India’s growth in the 2000s: Four facts

  The rupee: Frequently asked questions

Talk is cheap
Conclusion: there is precious little fundamental reason for the rupee to depreciate as it has done in 2011, and even less reason for it to depreciate at the speed of a Ferrari. If there are no fundamental reasons, what gives? Sentiment and expectations. The Centre has done everything possible to sour expectations and sentiment with regard to India. This has hurt. If this were not enough, the RBI messed up, by talking too much and stating that the rupee was a free floating currency. The market tested that ridiculous assertion. The market won. The RBI had to backtrack. Central bankers should be seen more, heard less. The rupee slide was aided and abetted by mismanagement of the interest rate and exchange rate policy. There is ample reason to believe that RBI is not independent, and that a considerable portion of mismanagement might actually be attributable to the Centre. Whatever the real cause, India is the loser.

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